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Although the sharp drop in oil prices seems to be a big problem for the country's economy, it is actually a great advantage because it gives us great signals to prepare for the future.
The end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015 were marked by failures for oil exporting countries, including Azerbaijan. So, while the price of oil exceeded $110 in June 2014, it lost enough value and approached $40 at the end of the year. Currently, the price of oil varies between $50-60.
There are a number of conspiracy theories about the drop in oil prices. According to some, the main reason for the drop in oil prices is the desire of the United States to punish Russia. According to some, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a major oil exporter, is deliberately lowering the price of oil to drive US shale oil out of the market.
According to other theories, the increase in the use of alternative energy and shale oil indirectly had a negative impact on oil consumption and oil prices.
Against the backdrop of a sharp drop in oil prices, the fact that the Saudi kingdom and OPEC do not reduce production increases the belief in conspiracy theories. Whether the price of oil reaches $110 or drops to $50 can be based on conspiracy theories.
Oil is currently still one of the dominant commodities defining the world economy. It is no coincidence that many researchers call this period the "Era of Oil" in their scientific articles. It is common for conspiracy theories to subject such a strategic product to speculation.
At first glance, it is a great chance that our country exports oil, which is such a strategic product. However, when the country's economy is dependent on oil, speculations on oil products have a deep impact on the country's economy and can create imbalances. As we are currently going through this painful process against the background of the decrease in budget revenues and the depreciation of the manat.
On the other hand, there is also a theory that oil brings misery and laziness to most countries. From an economic point of view, the non-oil sector is developing poorly, the efficiency of the economy is decreasing, and the country is gradually becoming dependent on oil. Politically, it becomes the subject of struggles and conflicts between the world's great powers and becomes one of the most injured parties in this process.
At the same time, thanks to our rich oil and gas resources, we were able to attract a large amount of currency to the country, but our economic dynamics in the non-oil sector could not develop sufficiently. It is no coincidence that oil and gas products accounted for 95% of the country's exports in 2014.
Taking advantage of the advantages of the oil era, our state was able to collect more than 35 billion dollars for the oil fund. But these advantages and the oil era are not eternal. As everything has an end, the oil era also has an end, and the country's leadership, as well as enterprises and organizations, as well as individuals, should prepare themselves for this end and the beginning of the next era.
There are many speculations about when the oil era will end. According to my personal opinion, we are gradually approaching the end of the oil era. I would like to inform my readers in advance that the end of the oil era does not mean the end of oil consumption. The end of the oil era means that oil will lose its dominant power as a commodity and be replaced by other commodities. Oil will be used as fuel in engines, plants and factories for a long time. Also, I think that we have not yet reached the end of the oil era, we still have 4-5 years, at best up to 10 years ahead.
Guy Bechon claims that with the beginning of 2015, the world has entered a new era. The era of Arab oil is over, the era of global innovation and technology, information revolution, intelligence has begun. It is unlikely that the income will be increased by a large amount due to raw materials.
The statements made by the president of the country at the meeting on January 27, as well as his statement that we will not be able to increase our foreign currency reserves as before, are a manifestation of the lack of confidence that the price of oil will rise in the future.
As you know, in 2014, Azerbaijan was able to maintain the exchange rate of the manat despite the sharp fall in the price of oil due to its foreign exchange reserves. However, despite the steps taken for the PR of the manat, devaluation was already started in February 2015 due to lack of confidence in oil prices. In my opinion, the loss of value of the manat will continue to increase. We faced a 34% loss in value in February. Although we will see occasional fluctuations in the value of oil and manat next year, I think this ratio will increase even more. Although it is difficult to predict what the exchange rate of the manat will be at the end of the year, it can be said for sure that our income will decrease significantly.
Different researchers have different opinions about the fate of oil prices. Some researchers say that the real price of oil is between $70-80 and will be offered at the limit of $60. Some are writing that oil will drop to $10. Although opinions differ, everyone agrees that the dynamics of oil prices will not be encouraging. As Dennis Gartman said, "what is important is not what the actual price of oil will be, but whether the price of oil will fall."
This situation will make a positive contribution to the economies of the main oil-consuming countries, and will cause serious problems for the oil-exporting countries whose economy is dependent on oil. We can say that the crisis is at the door, especially for countries like Azerbaijan that have not developed the non-oil sector and do not manage their resources effectively.
But what to do in this case?
From a macro-economic point of view, the main burden in this matter is, of course, on the state institutions. The competitive environment in our economy should be strengthened, the development of entrepreneurship should be intensified, real economic areas in the non-oil sector that create value should be developed, especially export-oriented areas should be encouraged, intellectual capital should be strengthened, in addition, the state budget, state projects and investments should be more strictly controlled, and the president of the country also noted wastage should be prevented as he did. In simple words, the foreign currency inflow to the country should be increased by developing the non-oil sector, and the foreign exchange expenditure from the country should be strictly controlled and the ineffective expenditure of foreign currency should be reduced.
Enterprises and organizations in the microeconomic field should increase their management efficiency, adopt and apply innovative management approaches that ensure competitive, sustainable development, and increase total quality.
Individuals should develop their personal effectiveness and professionalism. I think those who will benefit the most from the crisis situation will be ambitious professionals who know their fields well. So, in the conditions of a weak competitive environment, if the management of the company gives more place to the principles of loyalty, closeness, familiarity in personnel selection, then the principle of performance will be given place in order for the company to stand up in the competitive environment, and the employees who add value and profit to the company will be able to come to the fore.
By the same token, if more protocol competencies, language skills and standard qualifications were required from managers in a less competitive environment, the actual performance of the employee in a competitive environment would be taken into account.
I think that the sharp drop in the price of oil is not based on economic grounds, but rather on political grounds, and this situation will be restored in a certain sense, even if it is not at the previous level. However, I am of the opinion that the current situation is actually a chance for us and gives important signals for us to prepare for the end of the oil era. At the same time, although the crisis situation that may arise due to the decrease in the price of oil may seem like a serious problem for our country and our economy at first glance, it is possible to turn this problem into an advantage through proper anti-crisis policy, increasing the efficiency of the country's economy, and developing the real economy and competitive environment. it is possible for us to successfully move to the next economic stage.
There are a number of conspiracy theories about the drop in oil prices. According to some, the main reason for the drop in oil prices is the desire of the United States to punish Russia. According to some, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a major oil exporter, is deliberately lowering the price of oil to drive US shale oil out of the market.
According to other theories, the increase in the use of alternative energy and shale oil indirectly had a negative impact on oil consumption and oil prices.
Against the backdrop of a sharp drop in oil prices, the fact that the Saudi kingdom and OPEC do not reduce production increases the belief in conspiracy theories. Whether the price of oil reaches $110 or drops to $50 can be based on conspiracy theories.
Oil is currently still one of the dominant commodities defining the world economy. It is no coincidence that many researchers call this period the "Era of Oil" in their scientific articles. It is common for conspiracy theories to subject such a strategic product to speculation.
At first glance, it is a great chance that our country exports oil, which is such a strategic product. However, when the country's economy is dependent on oil, speculations on oil products have a deep impact on the country's economy and can create imbalances. As we are currently going through this painful process against the background of the decrease in budget revenues and the depreciation of the manat.
On the other hand, there is also a theory that oil brings misery and laziness to most countries. From an economic point of view, the non-oil sector is developing poorly, the efficiency of the economy is decreasing, and the country is gradually becoming dependent on oil. Politically, it becomes the subject of struggles and conflicts between the world's great powers and becomes one of the most injured parties in this process.
At the same time, thanks to our rich oil and gas resources, we were able to attract a large amount of currency to the country, but our economic dynamics in the non-oil sector could not develop sufficiently. It is no coincidence that oil and gas products accounted for 95% of the country's exports in 2014.
Taking advantage of the advantages of the oil era, our state was able to collect more than 35 billion dollars for the oil fund. But these advantages and the oil era are not eternal. As everything has an end, the oil era also has an end, and the country's leadership, as well as enterprises and organizations, as well as individuals, should prepare themselves for this end and the beginning of the next era.
There are many speculations about when the oil era will end. According to my personal opinion, we are gradually approaching the end of the oil era. I would like to inform my readers in advance that the end of the oil era does not mean the end of oil consumption. The end of the oil era means that oil will lose its dominant power as a commodity and be replaced by other commodities. Oil will be used as fuel in engines, plants and factories for a long time. Also, I think that we have not yet reached the end of the oil era, we still have 4-5 years, at best up to 10 years ahead.
Guy Bechon claims that with the beginning of 2015, the world has entered a new era. The era of Arab oil is over, the era of global innovation and technology, information revolution, intelligence has begun. It is unlikely that the income will be increased by a large amount due to raw materials.
The statements made by the president of the country at the meeting on January 27, as well as his statement that we will not be able to increase our foreign currency reserves as before, are a manifestation of the lack of confidence that the price of oil will rise in the future.
As you know, in 2014, Azerbaijan was able to maintain the exchange rate of the manat despite the sharp fall in the price of oil due to its foreign exchange reserves. However, despite the steps taken for the PR of the manat, devaluation was already started in February 2015 due to lack of confidence in oil prices. In my opinion, the loss of value of the manat will continue to increase. We faced a 34% loss in value in February. Although we will see occasional fluctuations in the value of oil and manat next year, I think this ratio will increase even more. Although it is difficult to predict what the exchange rate of the manat will be at the end of the year, it can be said for sure that our income will decrease significantly.
Different researchers have different opinions about the fate of oil prices. Some researchers say that the real price of oil is between $70-80 and will be offered at the limit of $60. Some are writing that oil will drop to $10. Although opinions differ, everyone agrees that the dynamics of oil prices will not be encouraging. As Dennis Gartman said, "what is important is not what the actual price of oil will be, but whether the price of oil will fall."
This situation will make a positive contribution to the economies of the main oil-consuming countries, and will cause serious problems for the oil-exporting countries whose economy is dependent on oil. We can say that the crisis is at the door, especially for countries like Azerbaijan that have not developed the non-oil sector and do not manage their resources effectively.
But what to do in this case?
From a macro-economic point of view, the main burden in this matter is, of course, on the state institutions. The competitive environment in our economy should be strengthened, the development of entrepreneurship should be intensified, real economic areas in the non-oil sector that create value should be developed, especially export-oriented areas should be encouraged, intellectual capital should be strengthened, in addition, the state budget, state projects and investments should be more strictly controlled, and the president of the country also noted wastage should be prevented as he did. In simple words, the foreign currency inflow to the country should be increased by developing the non-oil sector, and the foreign exchange expenditure from the country should be strictly controlled and the ineffective expenditure of foreign currency should be reduced.
Enterprises and organizations in the microeconomic field should increase their management efficiency, adopt and apply innovative management approaches that ensure competitive, sustainable development, and increase total quality.
Individuals should develop their personal effectiveness and professionalism. I think those who will benefit the most from the crisis situation will be ambitious professionals who know their fields well. So, in the conditions of a weak competitive environment, if the management of the company gives more place to the principles of loyalty, closeness, familiarity in personnel selection, then the principle of performance will be given place in order for the company to stand up in the competitive environment, and the employees who add value and profit to the company will be able to come to the fore.
By the same token, if more protocol competencies, language skills and standard qualifications were required from managers in a less competitive environment, the actual performance of the employee in a competitive environment would be taken into account.
I think that the sharp drop in the price of oil is not based on economic grounds, but rather on political grounds, and this situation will be restored in a certain sense, even if it is not at the previous level. However, I am of the opinion that the current situation is actually a chance for us and gives important signals for us to prepare for the end of the oil era. At the same time, although the crisis situation that may arise due to the decrease in the price of oil may seem like a serious problem for our country and our economy at first glance, it is possible to turn this problem into an advantage through proper anti-crisis policy, increasing the efficiency of the country's economy, and developing the real economy and competitive environment. it is possible for us to successfully move to the next economic stage.
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